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Success By Pick Complexity
26th May 2022 at 7:47pm
Scores and Stats
This statistic groups picks together by how many conditions are set by a pick. For example, "Apple will release a new iPhone" is 1 condition, and "The next version of Notes will have backlinks, macros, and will see a return to heavy skeuomorphism" is 3 conditions. This can be a bit subjective, but the general methodology is to consider "how many ways could this pick fail?"
# Conditions
1
Stephen
63/127
49.6%
Myke
66/122
54.1%
Federico
54/120
45.0%
All
183/369
49.6%
2
Stephen
8/20
40.0%
Myke
13/25
52.0%
Federico
14/40
35.0%
All
35/85
41.2%
3
Stephen
2/7
28.6%
Myke
3/5
60.0%
Federico
1/8
12.5%
All
6/20
30.0%
4
Stephen
0/1
0.0%
Myke
0/3
0.0%
Federico
4/8
50.0%
All
4/12
33.3%
5
Stephen
0/1
0.0%
Myke
1/2
50.0%
Federico
0/0
0.0%
All
1/3
33.3%
6
Stephen
0/0
0.0%
Myke
0/1
0.0%
Federico
0/0
0.0%
All
0/1
0.0%
7
Stephen
1/1
100.0%
Myke
0/1
0.0%
Federico
0/0
0.0%
All
1/2
50.0%
The high-complexity picks
Note that the additional conditions may be in the notes of the pick.
"2 Apple Pencils: the standard and a short one that supports the iPhone and iPad mini"
During grading, Federico proposes what will become Risky Picks, including 2 points for correct picks and losing a point for being wrong, as Myke describes how he wanted to go big with this pick.
This wasn't actually an option, but Stephen felt confident. (Really, he changed it to just be "after the 2018 iPhone event" as well, but that's not as fun.)
It was originally "Mac product", but there was some controversy over whether that includes accessories and displays. Ultimately, Myke upped the difficulty and removed the word "product".
"... smaller, not a cube shape, feature no support for the current MPX modules and/or will allow for some form of expandability outside of Thunderbolt. It will be only be available in one color."
Another "and/or" added to a pick, which happened a few times this episode. It applies to just the MPX modules and expandability clause.
"The Mac Pro will go away, the Mac Mini also goes away, by the end of 2017 the iMac is all that remains."
While explaining, Myke got a little carried away with how complete this transition would be, but when challenged to make it part of the pick, he decided to go for it.
"No Intel Macs are available for sale without an Apple Silicon counterpart." Myke points out the iMac Pro as a potential spoiler.
(For pick complexity purposes, I'm counting this as 1 condition for each Mac line that still had no Apple Silicon counterpart at the beginning of 2021: The larger MacBook Pros, the iMac in both sizes, the iMac Pro, and the Mac Pro. The Mac mini is 1 line with a high end and low end, so it already had an "Apple Silicon counterpart" although the high end Mac mini was still Intel.)
The iMac Pro left the lineup entirely, but the Mac Pro remained on Intel by the end of the year.
Exact names weren't the main goal of this pick. The pick intended to convey that the existing iPhone X would drop from the lineup, but both sizes of 8 and 7 would stick around.
The SE being dropped as well wasn't enough to make the pick wrong, apparently.
"...It features a case design inspired by the 2019 Mac Pro. It features more ports than any other Apple Silicon Mac available today. It does not have support for third-party GPUs. It features a chip name that has not appeared in any other product. It has a starting price of at least $6,999. It is coming later this year."
Originally it said "same case design", but the change was accepted on air after Myke reconsidered. "Later this year" was also demoted from being an exact quote.
This Mac Pro will have to beat the Mac Studio in terms of ports: 2 USB-C, 2 USB-A, 4 Thunderbolt, SD card, Ethernet, HDMI, and headphone jack, for a total of 12.