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Success By Pick Complexity

11th September 2021 at 9:47am
Scores and Stats

This statistic groups picks together by how many conditions are set by a pick. For example, "Apple will release a new iPhone" is 1 condition, and "The next version of Notes will have backlinks, macros, and will see a return to heavy skeuomorphism" is 3 conditions.

# Conditions
1
Stephen48/8854.5%
Myke45/8254.9%
Federico34/7644.7%
All127/24651.6%
2
Stephen6/1442.9%
Myke13/2161.9%
Federico13/3141.9%
All32/6648.5%
3
Stephen2/540.0%
Myke3/475.0%
Federico1/714.3%
All6/1637.5%
4
Stephen0/10.0%
Myke0/20.0%
Federico4/757.1%
All4/1040.0%
5
Stephen0/00.0%
Myke1/250.0%
Federico0/00.0%
All1/250.0%
6
Stephen0/00.0%
Myke0/10.0%
Federico0/00.0%
All0/10.0%
7
Stephen1/1100.0%
Myke0/00.0%
Federico0/00.0%
All1/1100.0%

The high-complexity picks

Note that the additional conditions may be in the notes of the pick.

4 Conditions

HostType2017 Annual PredictionsScore
Federico Regular "Siri on iOS will gain more verbal responses, speak more than it does now when activated with your voice" 0.5
  • "It can hold longer conversations without the user needing to look at the screen."
  • This was graded as a half point or a "kinda".
Myke Regular "An iPhone Pro with Apple Pencil support, 2 Apple Pencils" 0
  • "2 Apple Pencils: the standard and a short one that supports the iPhone and iPad mini"
  • During grading, Federico proposes what will become Risky Picks, including 2 points for correct picks and losing a point for being wrong, as Myke describes how he wanted to go big with this pick.
Federico Regular "Apple Music will be redesigned again" 0
  • "Will gain more Spotify-like algorithmic features"
  • "An Apple version of the Daily Mix and a way to discover back catalog songs from artists you don't know (Discover Weekly?)"
  • The New Music Daily feature would eventually come in 2019.
Federico Non‑graded "New iPad accessories: Keyboard + protection + pencil holder" 0.75
HostType2018 Annual PredictionsScore
Federico Non‑graded "A new smart keyboard: new material, backlit keys, a dedicated Siri key" 0
  • Apple's Magic Keyboard basically matching this description came out in 2020.
Federico Non‑graded "Apple Video and Apple Music have dedicated apps for Mac and iOS" 0
  • "Music and Video removed from iTunes on the Mac"
  • iTunes was eventually split up in 2019.
HostTypeThe AirPower GameScore
Stephen Non‑graded "AirPower will come out the first week of December 2018" 0
  • This wasn't actually an option, but Stephen felt confident.
HostType2019 Annual PredictionsScore
Federico Non‑graded "Shortcuts 2.0 is showed off at WWDC with a new developer framework for apps" 1
  • "Shortcuts also gets folders and AirPlay actions in 2019."
HostType2021 September RickiesScore
Federico Regular "The new iPhones keep the same screen sizes as last year" 1
HostType2021 October RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Apple teases another Mac, that is not for sale right now, with Pro in the name, and says that it is coming next year" -1
  • It was originally "Mac product", but there was some controversy over whether that includes accessories and displays. Ultimately, Myke upped the difficulty and removed the word "product".

5 Conditions

HostType2017 Annual PredictionsScore
Myke Regular "2017 will see a more powerful iMac at the top of the line that rivals and replaces the Mac Pro" 0.5
  • "The Mac Pro will go away, the Mac Mini also goes away, by the end of 2017 the iMac is all that remains"
HostType2019 Annual PredictionsScore
Myke Risky "Apple releases an iPhone subscription service that bundles a device, AppleCare, and a selection of other Apple content services into one monthly payment" -1
  • "(Not just additional iCloud space)"
  • The free AppleTV+ trial with new devices combined with an iPhone Upgrade Program purchase is deemed to not count during grading.
HostType2021 Annual RickiesScore
Stephen Risky "Apple has Apple Silicon versions of all of its Intel Macs on sale by the end of 2021"
  • "No Intel Macs are available for sale without an Apple Silicon counterpart." Myke points out the iMac Pro as a potential spoiler.
  • (For pick complexity purposes, I'm counting this as 1 condition for each Mac line that still had no Apple Silicon counterpart at the beginning of 2021: The larger MacBook Pros, the iMac in both sizes, the iMac Pro, and the Mac Pro. The Mac mini is 1 line with a high end and low end, so it already had an "Apple Silicon counterpart" although the high end Mac mini was still Intel.)

6 Conditions

HostType2021 September RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "A new iPad mini is introduced with a refreshed design, new colours previously not a part of the product, USB-C, Smart Connector, and 5G support" 0
  • Originally a Risky Pick.
  • This was very close to coming true, but it was missing a Smart Connector.

7 Conditions

HostType2018 iPhone Event PredictionsScore
Stephen Non‑graded "Line will be XS, 9, 8+, 8, 7+, 7, SE" 1