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Success By Pick Complexity

26th May 2022 at 7:47pm

This statistic groups picks together by how many conditions are set by a pick. For example, "Apple will release a new iPhone" is 1 condition, and "The next version of Notes will have backlinks, macros, and will see a return to heavy skeuomorphism" is 3 conditions. This can be a bit subjective, but the general methodology is to consider "how many ways could this pick fail?"

# Conditions
1
Stephen61/12050.8%
Myke62/11553.9%
Federico51/11444.7%
All174/34949.9%
2
Stephen8/1942.1%
Myke13/2552.0%
Federico14/3737.8%
All35/8143.2%
3
Stephen2/728.6%
Myke3/560.0%
Federico1/714.3%
All6/1931.6%
4
Stephen0/10.0%
Myke0/20.0%
Federico4/850.0%
All4/1136.4%
5
Stephen0/10.0%
Myke1/250.0%
Federico0/00.0%
All1/333.3%
6
Stephen0/00.0%
Myke0/10.0%
Federico0/00.0%
All0/10.0%
7
Stephen1/1100.0%
Myke0/10.0%
Federico0/00.0%
All1/250.0%

The high-complexity picks

Note that the additional conditions may be in the notes of the pick.

4 Conditions

HostType2017 Annual PredictionsScore
Federico Regular "Siri on iOS will gain more verbal responses, speak more than it does now when activated with your voice" 0.5
  • "It can hold longer conversations without the user needing to look at the screen."
  • This was graded as a half point or a "kinda".
Myke Regular "An iPhone Pro with Apple Pencil support, 2 Apple Pencils" 0
  • "2 Apple Pencils: the standard and a short one that supports the iPhone and iPad mini"
  • During grading, Federico proposes what will become Risky Picks, including 2 points for correct picks and losing a point for being wrong, as Myke describes how he wanted to go big with this pick.
Federico Regular "Apple Music will be redesigned again" 0
  • "Will gain more Spotify-like algorithmic features"
  • "An Apple version of the Daily Mix and a way to discover back catalog songs from artists you don't know (Discover Weekly?)"
  • The New Music Daily feature would eventually come in 2019.
Federico Non‑graded "New iPad accessories: Keyboard + protection + pencil holder" 0.75
HostType2018 Annual PredictionsScore
Federico Non‑graded "A new smart keyboard: new material, backlit keys, a dedicated Siri key" 0
  • Apple's Magic Keyboard basically matching this description came out in 2020.
Federico Non‑graded "Apple Video and Apple Music have dedicated apps for Mac and iOS" 0
  • "Music and Video removed from iTunes on the Mac"
  • iTunes was eventually split up in 2019.
HostTypeThe AirPower GameScore
Stephen Non‑graded "AirPower will come out the first week of December 2018" 0
  • This wasn't actually an option, but Stephen felt confident. (Really, he changed it to just be "after the 2018 iPhone event" as well, but that's not as fun.)
HostType2019 Annual PredictionsScore
Federico Non‑graded "Shortcuts 2.0 is showed off at WWDC with a new developer framework for apps" 1
  • "Shortcuts also gets folders and AirPlay actions in 2019."
HostType2021 September RickiesScore
Federico Regular "The new iPhones keep the same screen sizes as last year" 1
HostType2021 October RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Apple teases another Mac, that is not for sale right now, with Pro in the name, and says that it is coming next year" -1
  • It was originally "Mac product", but there was some controversy over whether that includes accessories and displays. Ultimately, Myke upped the difficulty and removed the word "product".
HostType2022 Annual RickiesScore
Myke Risky "The new Mac Pro will be..."
  • "... smaller, not a cube shape, feature no support for the current MPX modules and/or will allow for some form of expandability outside of Thunderbolt. It will be only be available in one color."
  • Another "and/or" added to a pick, which happened a few times this episode. It applies to just the MPX modules and expandability clause.
HostType2022 March RickiesScore
Federico Risky "A new base model Mac mini is introduced with the M2 chip..." -1
  • "... The new Mini is at least 30% smaller than the current one. It's thicker, but narrower, making it more similar to an Apple TV or Intel NUC."
  • In other words, closer to a cubic shape, but not necessarily a cube. Although Federico loves cubes, so that would be great.

5 Conditions

HostType2017 Annual PredictionsScore
Myke Regular "2017 will see a more powerful iMac at the top of the line that rivals and replaces the Mac Pro" 0.5
  • "The Mac Pro will go away, the Mac Mini also goes away, by the end of 2017 the iMac is all that remains."
  • While explaining, Myke got a little carried away with how complete this transition would be, but when challenged to make it part of the pick, he decided to go for it.
HostType2019 Annual PredictionsScore
Myke Risky "Apple releases an iPhone subscription service that bundles a device, AppleCare, and a selection of other Apple content services into one monthly payment" -1
  • "(Not just additional iCloud space)"
  • The free AppleTV+ trial with new devices combined with an iPhone Upgrade Program purchase is deemed to not count during grading.
HostType2021 Annual RickiesScore
Stephen Risky "Apple has Apple Silicon versions of all of its Intel Macs on sale by the end of 2021" -1
  • "No Intel Macs are available for sale without an Apple Silicon counterpart." Myke points out the iMac Pro as a potential spoiler.
  • (For pick complexity purposes, I'm counting this as 1 condition for each Mac line that still had no Apple Silicon counterpart at the beginning of 2021: The larger MacBook Pros, the iMac in both sizes, the iMac Pro, and the Mac Pro. The Mac mini is 1 line with a high end and low end, so it already had an "Apple Silicon counterpart" although the high end Mac mini was still Intel.)
  • The iMac Pro left the lineup entirely, but the Mac Pro remained on Intel by the end of the year.

6 Conditions

HostType2021 September RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "A new iPad mini is introduced with a refreshed design, new colours previously not a part of the product, USB-C, Smart Connector, and 5G support" 0
  • Originally a Risky Pick.
  • This was very close to coming true, but it was missing a Smart Connector.

7 Conditions

HostType2018 iPhone Event PredictionsScore
Stephen Non‑graded "Line will be XS, 9, 8+, 8, 7+, 7, SE" 1
  • Exact names weren't the main goal of this pick. The pick intended to convey that the existing iPhone X would drop from the lineup, but both sizes of 8 and 7 would stick around.
  • The SE being dropped as well wasn't enough to make the pick wrong, apparently.
HostType2022 WWDC RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Apple gives a sneak peak of the new Mac Pro..." -1
  • "...It features a case design inspired by the 2019 Mac Pro. It features more ports than any other Apple Silicon Mac available today. It does not have support for third-party GPUs. It features a chip name that has not appeared in any other product. It has a starting price of at least $6,999. It is coming later this year."
  • Originally it said "same case design", but the change was accepted on air after Myke reconsidered. "Later this year" was also demoted from being an exact quote.
  • This Mac Pro will have to beat the Mac Studio in terms of ports: 2 USB-C, 2 USB-A, 4 Thunderbolt, SD card, Ethernet, HDMI, and headphone jack, for a total of 12.
  • This pick is similar in spirit to Myke's ongoing Annual pick, but with different conditions. At the time it was the most complex graded pick ever made.