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Stagecraft

29th August 2024 at 2:45pm

Stephen's Stagecraft Picks

Type2019 Media Event PredictionsScore
Stephen Regular "Tim Cook interacts with a celebrity" 1
Type2019 Fall RickiesScore
Stephen Regular "No Mac or iPad hardware in the keynote" 0
  • 10.2" iPad was announced
Stephen Risky "No service bundle announced" 2
  • "including any service being free with another, or some sort of content being added to the iPhone upgrade program"
  • Apple TV+ was announced as a free trial, but not as a bundle. And it doesn't really come with the upgrade program as such. Stephen threads the needle with this pick.
Stephen Non‑graded "Jeff Williams will take a greater role in the keynote" 0
  • More than just the Apple Watch section
Stephen Non‑graded "No mention or word from Jony Ive" 1
Type2020 Summer RickiesScore
Stephen Non‑graded "Apple says literally anything about the HomePod" 1
Stephen Non‑graded "No Apple Services bundle announced" 1
Type2020 September RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "Joz wears a non-solid-color shirt" 0
Stephen Flexie "Event looks mostly like WWDC" 1
  • "Not all on stage in a theater but using different parts of the campus or outside world"
Stephen Flexie "Apple somehow sets expectations for when the iPhone will be announced" 0
Stephen Flexie "The removal of Force Touch on watchOS is framed as the inclusion of Haptic Touch" 0
Stephen Flexie "Preview of fall Apple TV+ content" 0
Type2020 October RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "Joz presents a new product" 1
Stephen Flexie "An AR demo is shown" 1
Stephen Flexie "iPad Air preorder date announced" 0
  • Orders began on October 16th, with no advanced notice. Unfortunately, the picks had already been graded by then.
Type2020 November RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "Phil Schiller is nowhere to be seen" 1
Stephen Flexie "We see a Big Sur feature recap" 1
Stephen Flexie "We see Johny Srouji again" 1
Stephen Flexie "No mention of cellular Macs" 1
Type2021 Annual RickiesScore
Stephen Regular "No in-person WWDC 2021" 1
Type2021 April RickiesScore
Stephen Risky "At this event, we see some sort of AR-focused hardware" -1
Stephen Flexie "We see Joz introduce something" 0
Stephen Flexie "No mention of AirTags" 0
Type2021 WWDC RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "We get some happy messaging from Apple about how much they value developers" 1
Type2021 September RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "Apple TV+ content is featured in the keynote" 1
Type2021 October RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "macOS Monterey features are reviewed" 0
  • Some Mac software features were mentioned, like running iOS apps, but nothing really specific to Monterey.
Type2022 March RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "We do not see Joz during this event" 1
Stephen Flexie "No preview of an Apple Silicon Mac Pro" 1
Type2022 WWDC RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "A presenter references the fact that some developers are at Apple Park for the keynote" 0
  • This is litigated a bit later when Myke's very similar pick got graded, as Tim Cook did address the audience before the video played. He was decided to not be "a presenter" at the time, ultimately.
Type2022 September RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "The keynote is a pre-recorded video" 1
Stephen Flexie "Apple mentions at least 1 feature "coming later"" 1
Type2023 Annual RickiesScore
Stephen Regular "WWDC 2023 follows the same format as WWDC 2022, with a small number of people invited in person" 1
  • No convention center, no ticket lottery, just like in 2022.
Type2023 WWDC RickiesScore
Stephen Regular "The phrase "one more thing" will be used before the headset is announced" 1
Stephen Flexie "The keynote video runs over 2 hours" 1
Stephen Flexie "Apple reframes an existing feature as being powered by "AI"" 0
Stephen Flexie "Jeff Williams has a major role in introducing the headset" 0
  • Was originally Kevin Lynch until Myke, ever the sportsman, pointed out that Lynch is supposedly on the car project, not the headset.
Stephen Flexie "We see a Mac Pro preview" 1
  • Ultimately it was both a preview and not a teaser... apparently.
Type2023 October RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "We don't see Tim Cook on video" 0
Type2024 WWDC RickiesScore
Stephen Regular "Apple mentions that it has created its own LLM" 1
  • Must be the term "large language model" or "LLM" in particular, but this could be in a session or the State of the Union keynote, not just the main event.
Stephen Flexie "We do not see Sam Altman's face in the presentation" 1
Type2024 September RickiesScore
Stephen Flexie "We see the rainbow stage at Apple Park in the video" 1
Stephen Flexie "Jeff Williams is seen in nature" 1
Stephen Flexie "Craig travels from one set to another in a ridiculous fashion" 0
Type2025 WWDC RickiesScore
Stephen Regular "The Google Gemini logo is shown on screen as part of a partnership announcement" 0
Stephen Flexie "Alan Dye is in the presentation to talk about the redesign" 1

Myke's Stagecraft Picks

Type2018 iPhone Event PredictionsScore
Myke Non‑graded "Nothing about the Mac" 1
  • The mention of Mojave's release is deemed insufficient to make this wrong.
Myke Non‑graded "The only iPhones seen on stage will be the ones we already know about" 1
  • This seems to have been a sub-bullet point to the previous pick originally, but was forcibly upgraded to a full pick by Myke during grading. (Again, this "game" wasn't even supposed to be a competition originally.)
Type2019 Media Event PredictionsScore
Myke Non‑graded "All the celebrities will come out at the end and take a picture together" 1
Type2019 WWDC PredictionsScore
Myke Regular "Apple will mention Apple Arcade during the keynote" 1
Type2019 Fall RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Tim Cook thanks Jony Ive, the camera shows Jony in the audience, Jony doesn't stand" -1
Myke Non‑graded "The Mac is not mentioned" 1
Type2020 September RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "Someone washes their hands during the presentation" 0
Type2020 October RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "No new Macs announced" 1
Myke Flexie "Apple TV+ trailers are shown" 0
Type2020 November RickiesScore
Myke Regular "Apple demos iOS apps running on a Mac" 0
Myke Flexie "Craig demos Big Sur features" 1
  • The instant wake demo is counted for this.
Type2021 April RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "Apple talks about App Tracking Transparency in iOS 14.5" 0
Type2021 October RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Apple teases another Mac, that is not for sale right now, with Pro in the name, and says that it is coming next year" -1
  • It was originally "Mac product", but there was some controversy over whether that includes accessories and displays. Ultimately, Myke upped the difficulty and removed the word "product".
Myke Flexie "Webcam will be called "highest quality on a Mac"" 0
  • It was "Mac notebook".
Type2022 Annual RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "Tim Cook says "metaverse"" 1
Type2022 March RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "Tim Cook mentions the war in Ukraine" 0
Myke Flexie "John Ternus is wearing a black T-shirt" 0
Type2022 WWDC RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Apple gives a sneak peak of the new Mac Pro..." -1
  • "...It features a case design inspired by the 2019 Mac Pro. It features more ports than any other Apple Silicon Mac available today. It does not have support for third-party GPUs. It features a chip name that has not appeared in any other product. It has a starting price of at least $6,999. It is coming later this year."
  • Originally it said "same case design", but the change was accepted on air after Myke reconsidered. "Later this year" was also demoted from being an exact quote.
  • This Mac Pro will have to beat the Mac Studio in terms of ports: 2 USB-C, 2 USB-A, 4 Thunderbolt, SD card, Ethernet, HDMI, and headphone jack, for a total of 12.
  • This pick is similar in spirit to Myke's ongoing Annual pick, but with different conditions. At the time it was the most complex graded pick ever made.
Myke Flexie "Tim presents some portion of the keynote in front of a live audience" 0
Type2022 September RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "Someone is wearing the new Apple Watch while riding a skateboard" 0
  • A reference to the "Apple Watch Extreme" rumors. Maybe Tony Hawk?
Myke Flexie "We do not see John Ternus" 1
Myke Flexie "No trailers for Apple TV+ content" 1
Myke Flexie "Tim Cook says "good morning"" 1
Type2023 WWDC RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "No Mac Pro teaser video" 1
Myke Flexie "We do not know what the price of the headset will be" 0
Myke Flexie "The headset portion of the keynote lasts over an hour" 0
Myke Flexie "tvOS is not covered in the keynote" 0
Type2023 September RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Apple calls the new camera the "Magic Telephoto"" -1
  • Myke thinks that "periscope" is a bad name for regular people and so Apple will pick something else, and to make it risky, he has made a specific guess at the branding. He also considered "Ultra Telephoto".
Myke Flexie "Apple says they've formulated a new kind of titanium that has special properties" 1
  • Apple certainly touted the properties of the titanium, but it may not have been new. Nevertheless, it's graded as correct and not delved into too deeply, and wouldn't have changed the results either way.
Myke Flexie "The David Guetta song doesn't play" 1
Type2023 October RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "Some kind of Halloween joke is made" 1
  • Perhaps Greg Joswiak dressed as something.
Myke Flexie "Someone says "carbon neutral"" 1
Myke Flexie "All outside shots are filmed in the evening" 1
Myke Flexie "John Ternus looks great" 1
Type2024 WWDC RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "RCS is not spoken aloud in the keynote" 0
  • An earlier draft of this pick was a risky pick that also specified that it would appear in the "bento box" slide specifically in the bottom left.
Myke Flexie "Vision Pro international availability is mentioned" 1
Type2024 September RickiesScore
Myke Risky "Apple specifically mention RAM/Memory in the iPhone, say it will be at least 8GB, and state it is to power Apple Intelligence" 1
  • This pick triggered some confusion about the new three-condition risky pick rules, and it got a bit heated. But ultimately the rules were revised to clarify that the risky pick is the three conditions, and doesn't need an additional overarching pick.
Myke Flexie "There is a segment about Apple Intelligence that lasts at least 10 minutes" 1
Myke Flexie "Apple does not say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"" 0
Myke Flexie "Tim Cook is surrounded by long grass" 0
Myke Flexie "The Apple Watch segment is presented in and around a gym" 0
Myke Flexie "Craig wears a costume for some portion of the event" 0
Type2025 Annual RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "There will be only three Apple events in 2025"
Type2025 WWDC RickiesScore
Myke Flexie "Apple introduces the new OS design with an animated video showing the old look morphing in to the new look" 0
Myke Flexie "During the opening, Tim Cook uses the words "love" and "developers" in the same sentence" 0

Federico's Stagecraft Picks

Type2019 Media Event PredictionsScore
Federico Risky "Apple will mention at least one new feature coming to the HomePod" -1
Federico Non‑graded "Apple gives a quick tour of improvements to next round of software updates" 0
Type2019 Fall RickiesScore
Federico Non‑graded "Apple gives a release date for iOS 13.1 and mentions the update on stage" 0
Federico Non‑graded "Apple announces new environmental efforts, such as a new recycling robot" 0
Type2020 Summer RickiesScore
Federico Non‑graded "The keynote is held outside on the stage Apple uses for concerts at Apple Park" 0
Type2020 September RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "Apple showcases at least one new feature coming in iOS or iPadOS 14.1" 0
  • The version number wasn't stated explicitly, otherwise Fitness+ would have counted.
Federico Flexie "At least one segment of the keynote is shot inside Apple's own fitness labs" 1
  • It isn't quite clear if what they showed was the lab, but it doesn't matter to the scoring anyway so the point is given.
Type2020 October RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "iOS 14.2's Shazam recognition is demoed" 0
Type2020 November RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "Apple compares the performance of Apple Silicon Macs to "most PCs sold today"" 1
Federico Flexie "Apple demos a game running on an Apple Silicon Mac" 0
Type2021 October RickiesScore
Federico Regular "Any kind of release timeframe is provided for macOS Monterey" 1
  • Apparently feeling humble, Federico admits that this is a "boring" pick. It was originally "release date", but when some questioning about whether just a month would count came up, he watered it down.
Federico Flexie "Apple demos a Mac app that takes advantage of the updated Neural Engine" 0
Federico Flexie "John Ternus is wearing jeans and a black t-shirt" 0
  • It was a blue t-shirt.
Federico Flexie "There is going to be a funny scene involving one of the characters of Ted Lasso" 0
  • Federico originally had "Universal Control has been postponed to a future macOS Monterey update", but during the show a new macOS beta was released with the feature not available, but at least mentioned in an unselectable check box.
Type2022 March RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "No preview of an AR headset" 1
Federico Flexie "Universal Control is demoed again" 0
Federico Flexie "Craig is wearing a blue shirt" 0
Type2022 September RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "Tony Hawk will make an appearance at the event" 0
Type2023 WWDC RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "The next version of macOS is called Skyline" 0
Federico Flexie "Some new Shortcuts features get covered in the State of the Union" 1
  • Single-action app Shortcut items now appear in Spotlight, among other "app intents" features.
Type2023 September RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "The David Guetta song plays either before or during the event" 0
  • In response to Myke's more negative pick. This possibly falls slightly afoul of the scoring window rules as it includes things before the event but is allowed, with a rule update to be implemented later.
Type2023 October RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "Johnny Srouji makes an appearance" 1
Federico Flexie "The event video is less than 90 minutes long" 1
Federico Flexie "Vision Pro is mentioned at some point during the video" 0
Type2024 May RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "The video is shorter than 31 minutes" 0
  • Close, but over.
Type2024 September RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "Apple Intelligence features are demoed again" 1
Federico Flexie "ChatGPT is mentioned again" 1
Federico Flexie "The flashlight in the new iPhones is mentioned as being brighter than before" 0
Federico Flexie "Craig Federighi is stranded somewhere" 1
Type2025 WWDC RickiesScore
Federico Flexie "Apple teases bigger versions of AFM on the horizon" 0
Federico Flexie "Apple hints that a new "glass-like" material for its UI design is true to the nature of the hardware itself" 1
  • Stephen cites Alan Dye's mention of the rounded corners on many Apple screens influencing the design.
Federico Flexie "A disclaimer is added to some features in the video saying whether it's real footage or simulated" 0